The ongoing tariff turmoil is no laughing matter for investors. Most major stock indexes have dropped into bear market territory. And while we’ve seen a meaningful recovery in certain equities, it’s clear we are not out of the woods yet. 

From an economic standpoint, tariffs are generally perceived to be a net negative, due to the fact that they tend to raise prices for consumers. And with the American consumer showing increased signs of weakness, that’s bad news for the many companies that rely on consistent consumer spending to juice their revenue and earnings. 

That said, there are specific sectors that could get a boost from these policies. Analysts have tapped the domestic steel, forestry, and oil and gas industries as potential winners, as well as companies that stand to benefit from reshoring and a renaissance in American manufacturing. 

Here’s why MP Materials (MP) could be a trade war winner moving forward. 

MP Posts Incredible Performance in 2025

With MP Materials (MP) up nearly 70% on a year-to-date basis, it’s clear investors are confident in what lies ahead for the rare earth minerals producer. This is because the company is poised to benefit from President Donald Trump’s administration’s efforts to increase U.S. manufacturing of these critical minerals. 

MP is the largest such rare earth minerals producer in the Western Hemisphere, with the company currently processing around 40% of the raw materials it produces. However, the company is looking to ramp up its production and refining capacity, with regulators clearly hoping the company can achieve a much higher efficiency rate on this front and move toward shifting most its critical supply chain back to the U.S.

Such a feat will be difficult. Experts estimate that around 85% of the total refined rare earth minerals used in the production of everything from clean energy turbines, batteries, solar panels, and even military-grade fighter jets come through China. 

If MP can continue to take market share and ramp up its operations in the U.S., there’s good reason for its shares to be skyrocketing now.  

What Do the Fundamentals Say? 

The story behind MP Materials’ recent rise is easy to understand. However, looking beneath the surface, it’s clear that a lot will need to go right in order for MP stock to live up to its increasingly pricey valuation.

Currently trading at a market capitalization of $3.7 billion and a price-sales multiple of more than 18 times, MP will need to grow at the speed of light in order to live up to the valuation the market has put on its shares. And given that MP Materials is still a loss-generating business, producing an EPS loss of $0.58 over the past year, there’s plenty of work to be done in order for the company to translate its political tailwinds into fundamental results. 

I think more domestic manufacturing of critical rare earth minerals is important. However, for most investors, what matters is how quickly MP can scale up to take advantage of these tailwinds. 

What Do Analysts Think? 

Overall, Wall Street analysts do appear to remain bullish on MP Materials. 

The consensus analyst price target on MP stock sits at $27.36 per share, slightly higher than the current trading price. It’s worth pointing out that many analyst targets are currently dated. I expect analysts will be prompted to rerate shares and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the company’s consensus price target continue to rise. The stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating with seven “Strong Buy” ratings and four “Hold” ratings. 

For now, I’m going to remain on the sidelines with MP stock, but I think it’s a name that is definitely worth watching.